F1 – Yuki Tsunoda 28.3.25 – Will He Get Demolished?
Yuki Tsunoda will get the Red Bull seat with minimal time in the car and much less time that Lawson. In this article we’ll look at Verstappen‘s record versus his team mates since he’s been in F1, see if Red Bull is doing a better or worse job with it’s second drivers, look at how Tsunoda’s F1 results rank against Verstappen’s previous team mates and finally make a prediction as to what positions Tsunoda will finish in Suzuka and in the championship.
Verstappen Head-to-Head
Let’s looks at how Verstappen compares to his team mates over time to see if there is a pattern
| H2H | Verstappen/Team-Mate | Team-Mate | Win % / x more points |
| Beat in race | 12/9 | Sainz | 57 |
| Beat in race | 35/21 | Ricciardo | 63 |
| Beat in race | 11/1 | Gasly | 92 |
| Beat in race | 17/8 | Albon | 68 |
| Beat in race | 79/10 | Perez | 89 |
| Qualy | 12/11 | Sainz | 52 |
| Qualy | 34/24 | Ricciardo | 59 |
| Qualy | 11/1 | Gasly | 92 |
| Qualy | 25/1 | Albon | 96 |
| Qualy | 80/10 | Perez | 89 |
| Points | 62/22 | Sainz | 74/2.8 |
| Points | 608/590 | Ricciardo | 51/1.03 |
| Points | 180/63 | Gasly | 74/2.9 |
| Points | 311/181 | Albon | 63/1.7 |
| Points | 1861.5/932 | Perez | 67/2 |
Takeaways
With regards to points scored, Verstappen is pretty dominant versus his team mate. Is the gap to his team-mate getting worse over time? Is the management of the number two driver at Red Bull getting worse over time?
I think it’s hard to make that argument, there doesn’t seem to be a pattern.
Rating Verstappen Team Mates
Let rank Verstappen’s team mates by comparing how they did racing each other and see if there are drivers who should have done better than they did.
Head-to-Heads – Compared on Points Scored Basis
Perez is better than Ocon.
Gasly is better than Ocon and by a bigger margin than Perez. Gasly is better than Perez.
Albon is very closely matched with Gasly in terms of points per GP and this is despite Albon racing for Williams when they were at the back. I think I could argue Albon is better than Gasly.
In terms of points per race, Sainz is better than Norris and Norris is better than Ricciardo.
Ricciardo is better than Ocon by a bigger margin than Gasly.
Ranking Verstappen Team Mates
Sainz – 1
Ricciardo – 2
Albon – 3
Gasly – 4
Perez – 5
Rank vs Results Against Verstappen
Sainz did really well against Verstappen except when it comes to points scored. Given that I’ve ranked Sainz first of all Verstappen’s team mates, I think his results fit.
Ricciardo second best against Verstappen in terms of qualifying and race results but does much better than Sainz in terms of points. Again, fits with Ricciardo’s rank of second.
Albon has done a better job than Gasly in terms of race results against Verstappen. Again, fits with our rank.
Perez is middle to bottom versus Verstappen compared to Verstappen’s other team mates. And again, this fits with our rank.
In short, what we might expect of Verstappen’s team-mates performance (what they have done against each other in other teams) is connected to how they actually did against Verstappen and there doesn’t seem to be a time element. Red bull’s management of the number two is not getting worse or better over time. Are Verstappen’s team-mates as a whole, performing below their potential at Red Bull? I think the only way to find that out is if Verstappen changes team and then see how he compares to his new team-mate.
How do things bode of Yuki Tsunoda?
We don’t know how well Verstappen’s team-mates are supported at Red Bull. There were rumours that Ricciardo was unhappy and we’ve seen Red Bull be harsh/cruel with it’s drivers (swapping drivers mid-season, not telling drivers what is happening). What I think we can say is that the treatment, however it is, is consistent.
Prediction
With that in mind, to give an estimate of how Tsunoda will do at Suzuka, we need to see how he has done against Verstappen’s former team mates.
Gasly was comprehensively better than Tsunoda in Tsunoda’s second season.
But Tsunoda comprehensively beat Ricciardo who is ranked higher than Gasly.
Lawson and Tsunoda were arguably pretty even and Verstappen demolished Lawson (granted I don’t think Lawson had enough time)
In summary, I think it’s fair to say Tsunoda is making forward steps each season. I think he would run Gasly closer now and we know Lawson runs Tsunoda very close.
Problem
The problem is Gasly was among Verstappen’s weakest team-mates. If we assume that Tsunoda would edge Gasly as of today, it still doesn’t bode well for Tsunoda.
And if things weren’t bad enough, we know how difficult Lawson found it and we know Lawson is pretty even with Tsunoda. Another reason to think it’s not going to be easy for Tsunoda and he could well end up performing as well as Gasly/Lawson ie with Verstappen scoring three times as many points.
Silver Lining for Tsunoda
I think there is one thing that can save Tsunoda and ironically it’s the difficult Red Bull car.
The team-mate that pushed Verstappen closest was Ricciardo and Ricciardo wanted the same thing from the car as Verstappen namely a grippy front end.
Tsunoda beat Ricciardo and Tsunoda also claims to want a grippy front end.
I guess it’s possible Ricciardo was off the pace versus Tsunoda because the car didn’t have the grip he wanted (rather than being off the pace in general) and it’s also possible Yuki Tsunoda could have gone even faster if the junior car had the front grip of the Red Bull car. Yuki Tsunoda has claimed he likes a car with a grippy front end.
If this is the case and it’s a huge if, then perhaps Tsunoda could be in the ball park and who knows, perhaps get as close to Verstappen and Ricciardo was.
Evidence
But looking at the evidence rather than looking at possibilities, I’d say Yuki Tsunoda will do a bit better job than Gasly and if the car suits his style then perhaps he can get up to the Albon level which would mean Tsunoda finishing in the top 8 (assuming Verstappen is finishing third or fourth) with Verstappen scoring on average twice as many points. If Tsunoda can get up to the Perez level, with so little seat time, I think that has to be classed as a success in his first season with the senior team.
So that’s my prediction, Tsunoda finishing 7th or 8th at Suzuka and in the championship.
