FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner – StrikeEngine FPL
The StrikeEngine FPL fixture difficulty tool takes into consideration many different variables to give you a relative fixture difficulty for each team, for the next gameweek and the next 5 gameweeks. Titles are sortable.
The 3 Planning Tools on this page >>> “Official” Planner (Partly using official rating) – Alternative Planner (No use of official FDR at all) – Goals/Results Planner (Uses goals and pass results) – VIDEO GUIDE HERE
Other FPL TOOLS – Points Prediction Tool – FPL TV
TIPS: Use the tool after the current gameweek has finished +1 day. ALL planners are sortable, click the column header.
SEFD — StrikeEngine FPL Relative Fixture Difficulty
Lower the number, the easier the fixture
| Team | SEFD — Next GW (GW17) | SEFD — Avg Next 5 GWs | SEFD — Avg Next 8 GWs | SEFD — Avg Next 6–8 GWs | Δ (6–8 vs Next 5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | -2.716 | -2.861 | -3.356 | -4.181 | -1.32 |
| Aston Villa | -1.566 | -1.357 | -2.096 | -3.328 | -1.97 |
| Burnley | 1.986 | 2.856 | 3.098 | 3.5 | 0.644 |
| Bournemouth | -2.486 | 0.934 | 0.708 | 0.332 | -0.601 |
| Brentford | -1.633 | 0.477 | 1.1 | 2.139 | 1.662 |
| Brighton | 0.181 | 0.003 | -0.391 | -1.047 | -1.049 |
| Chelsea | -2.663 | -1.793 | -2.243 | -2.993 | -1.2 |
| Crystal Palace | -3.965 | -2.419 | -2.121 | -1.624 | 0.795 |
| Everton | 2.216 | -1.98 | -1.412 | -0.467 | 1.513 |
| Fulham | -1.167 | 1.059 | 0.954 | 0.781 | -0.278 |
| Leeds | 3.465 | 2.86 | 2.778 | 2.641 | -0.22 |
| Liverpool | -1.232 | -1.941 | -2.34 | -3.004 | -1.063 |
| Man City | -5.466 | -3.325 | -3.421 | -3.581 | -0.255 |
| Man Utd | 1.066 | -2.896 | -1.864 | -0.145 | 2.751 |
| Newcastle | 2.163 | 0.288 | 0.401 | 0.59 | 0.302 |
| Nott'm Forest | 0.667 | 2.117 | 2.33 | 2.684 | 0.567 |
| Sunderland | -0.681 | -1.14 | -1.561 | -2.263 | -1.123 |
| Spurs | 0.732 | 0.191 | -0.248 | -0.979 | -1.169 |
| West Ham | 4.966 | 1.224 | 1.844 | 2.876 | 1.652 |
| Wolves | 1.133 | 2.704 | 2.841 | 3.068 | 0.363 |
This table uses in part, the FDR from the FPL. These numbers do carry a weighting according to if the team is playing at home or away in future fixtures.
| Team | SEFD Next (GW17) | SEFD Next 5 Avg | SEFD Next 8 Avg | Change (5→8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | -87.333 | -75.933 | -94.458 | -18.525 |
| Aston Villa | -36.500 | -39.567 | -59.979 | -20.413 |
| Burnley | 111.333 | 112.900 | 118.125 | 5.225 |
| Bournemouth | -111.333 | -10.100 | -5.583 | 4.517 |
| Brentford | 58.333 | 74.833 | 76.208 | 1.375 |
| Brighton | 41.333 | 9.500 | 5.000 | -4.500 |
| Chelsea | -75.333 | -31.033 | -50.667 | -19.633 |
| Crystal Palace | -74.000 | -49.633 | -48.250 | 1.383 |
| Everton | 87.333 | -45.400 | -26.729 | 18.671 |
| Fulham | -71.333 | 12.800 | 15.771 | 2.971 |
| Leeds | 74.000 | 50.900 | 52.542 | 1.642 |
| Liverpool | -34.500 | -17.833 | -36.000 | -18.167 |
| Man City | -153.000 | -98.200 | -92.250 | 5.950 |
| Man Utd | 36.500 | -50.533 | -22.729 | 27.804 |
| Newcastle | 75.333 | 20.733 | 31.083 | 10.350 |
| Nott'm Forest | 71.333 | 105.733 | 109.542 | 3.808 |
| Sunderland | -41.333 | -45.300 | -59.875 | -14.575 |
| Spurs | 34.500 | 20.067 | 5.250 | -14.817 |
| West Ham | 153.000 | 60.467 | 73.625 | 13.158 |
| Wolves | -58.333 | -4.400 | 9.375 | 13.775 |
Th “SEFD Alternative” stat is completely custom and does not use the “official” FDR at all. This does not carry any weighting for home/away fixtures.
This planner takes into consideration goals scored, goals conceded, quality of opposition. Final column is the difficulty rating, lower the number the easier the fixture.
| Team | Home G | Home GF | Home GA | Away G | Away GF | Away GA | Home PPG | Away PPG | Home Opp Difficulty | Away Opp Difficulty | Home Pwr | Away Pwr | Next Fix Diff | Next 5 Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 5 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 0.88 | 1.80 | 2.64 | 2.88 | -0.65 | -0.70 |
| Aston Villa | 5 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 0.88 | 1.36 | 2.64 | 3.26 | -0.53 | -1.09 |
| Burnley | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 1.36 | 1.80 | 0.82 | 1.08 | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Bournemouth | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 1.60 | 0.40 | 1.28 | 2.16 | 2.05 | 0.86 | -0.97 | 0.48 |
| Brentford | 5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.96 | -0.69 | 0.19 |
| Brighton | 5 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.12 | 1.76 | 1.12 | -0.29 | 0.33 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.92 | 1.16 | 1.84 | 2.32 | 0.90 | 0.06 |
| Crystal Palace | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 1.20 | 2.45 | -0.43 | 0.93 |
| Everton | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.24 | 2.08 | 2.23 | 2.91 | 0.65 | -1.19 |
| Fulham | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.78 | 0.38 | 0.04 |
| Leeds | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 1.31 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.52 | 1.92 | 2.13 | 1.54 | -0.20 | -0.62 |
| Man City | 5 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 0.72 | 1.96 | 2.16 | 3.53 | -1.01 | -1.06 |
| Man Utd | 5 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 0.84 | 0.96 | 1.34 | 2.11 | 0.53 | -0.49 |
| Newcastle | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 2.60 | 0.60 | 1.24 | 1.84 | 3.22 | 1.10 | -0.90 | -0.91 |
| Nott'm Forest | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 1.52 | 1.90 | 1.82 | -0.38 | 0.49 |
| Sunderland | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.84 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| Spurs | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 1.68 | 2.04 | 1.34 | 2.86 | 0.20 | -0.68 |
| West Ham | 5 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.92 | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.01 | 0.25 |
| Wolves | 5 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 1.36 | 2.28 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 1.45 |
About
There are many fixture difficulty calculators. This one takes into consideration the official FPL fixture difficulty rating as well as analysing actual results and standings to come up with a hybrid difficulty rating.
Why Did I Make This Tool?
In my opinion too many fixtures are in the 2-3-4 rating using the official fixture difficulty rating, I wanted to see more granularity so I’ve combined the official 1-5 rating with more factors to make the StrikeEngine FPL fixture difficulty planner. Instead of the difficulty rating being in a range of 1 to 5, the range this tool gives is potentially unlimited (within reason).
That, and a lot of the tools I saw give fixture ratings which I don’t think are reasonable.
Accuracy – FPL Fixture Difficulty Predictor
At the time of writing this the season has just started. We are in the middle of gameweek 2 and Chelsea have just demolished West Ham. The point being the more games are played the more accurate this planner will become. With only one game played the accuracy is not great if we have seen fluke results in gameweek 1.
I would say for gameweek 6 and on it will start to give a much better picture of where the teams stand relative to each other.
Future Predictions
Some tools allow you to customise the gameweek period. For example you can see the predicted fixtures for the next 8 weeks on some FPL tools.
I’ve stuck to five. My thinking being the longer into the future we go the more inaccurate the difficulty rating is going to be. I thought 5 gameweeks in advance was a happy medium. It allows us to keep on top of our team and doesn’t give us info we don’t need. Generally speaking, I expect most FPL teams have a solid core of 4 or 5 players anyway, 5 weeks into the future will let us keep on top of the players we need to rotate out.
