Lawson Out? – Will Tsunoda race for RedBull in Japan?
Internet has exploded with rumours that Tsunoda could race for RedBull in Japan instead of Liam Lawson. In this StrikeEngine article we find the source of these rumours and judge if it’s a good idea and what it says about RedBull.
Rumour – Lawson Out for Japan?
Where did this rumour come from?
De Telegraaf, a Dutch newspaper, is claiming Tsunoda will “definitely” be in the RedBull car for Japan. Apparently there has been a meeting with a major Thai RedBull shareholder and that Honda was also involved. Apparently the change will be announced later this week.
I think it’s important to stress. All this is unconfirmed by the people that matter ie RedBull, Lawson and Tsunoda so it may yet all turn out to be BS. I don’t know De Telegraaf I have no idea if they are reliable.
Assuming it’s true
Does it make sense to swap drivers now and what does that say about the RedBull organisation as a whole at the moment?
I’m a huge Tsunoda fan and wanted Yuki to have the Perez seat. With that in mind I think it would be a mistake to swap the drivers after two races. For many reasons.
First two rounds
The first two rounds of the 2025 Formula 1 season have not been great for a rookie, someone with limited time in the car and someone who had started in a car which is apparently hard to drive.
The first race was wet and it’s probably the first time Lawson drove that car in the wet. Maybe his race pace was off but let’s look at who he finished ahead of. Alonso and Sainz. Tricky car, tricky conditions, not a bad pair of drivers to beat. And perhaps comparing to Antonelli is not fair as he’s been driving the car on Fridays last season.
In summary. First time out, shit happens.
Second race. A Sprint race weekend. Not a lot of time to adjust setup. So not ideal. In qualifying he was seven tenths off Verstappen. Not great but a big step forward over Melbourne.
Race result nothing to write home about but given the limited setup time and given his gap to Verstappen in qualifying I don’t think it was reasonable to expect a big improvement in position.
My summary of China would be a big improvement over Melbourne.
Does it make sense to swap?
Does it make sense for RedBull to swap Tsunoda and Lawson now?
As a Tsunoda fan, I would say 100% no.
All the problems stem from seat time. Yes Lawson did 191 laps in testing and his times were way off. But were they representative? Or was he doing race runs?
Lawson was 0.7 of Verstappen in China so either he has made a big improvement or the testing times were not representative. Either way I think he needs to stay in the car.
Lawson got dropped into the junior team halfway through the season last year. Tsunoda beat him but Tsunoda has more experience and no one was saying Lawson was getting smashed by Tsunoda.
In short, Lawson is not a random, he is a decent driver. To say he’s rubbish is clearly wrong. To say he needs to get dropped after two difficult races makes no sense to me, at least on the surface.
Perhaps Tsunoda can be a tenth quicker than Lawson, perhaps even two tenths quicker over a lap, this is still not going to be enough. The problems at RedBull are a bigger.
The Test
Japan will be the test for Lawson. Has has plenty of laps under his belt at Suzuka and it’s a normal weekend with three practice sessions. He has to be within three tenths of a second of Verstappen. If not, a case against Lawson would be more justified.
In my opinion, Lawson has to race at Suzuka. To make a driver swap without knowing what the actual level of the driver is at best, hasty and at worst chaotic.
The State of RedBull
For all the reasons I’ve listed above, I think the big question is why Lawson was even given the seat in the first place? If they are considering swapping Lawson out after two races you have to ask yourself on what basis they gave him the drive?
You have to assume they gave him the drive because they believe he has a proven track record of being fast. That he has shown glimmers of brilliance that put him ahead of a proven points scorer in Tsunoda.
Again, assuming they are even contemplating a swap at this point, it begs the question what has changed in two races?
Is the result of two sub optimal races enough for them to burn their driver data analysis?
Is this the level of driver selection at RedBull?
Are RedBull just taking punts on which drivers to choose?
Who looks the best on a particular day?
Who looked particularly racy in a single race?
If they swap out a driver after two drivers I think the conclusion has to be yes, decisions are being made on a whim.
Or is it something else?
Perhaps RedBull driver selection does have a method. Something grounded in data and not something based solely on the eye test.
Could it be that RedBull in Thailand and Honda pushed hard for Tsunoda to get the seat this year but were overruled by Horner/Marko?
Is this why we appear to be seeing such a massive reversal in opinion in such a short time?
Honda and Thailand were extremely unhappy with the decision of Lawson and have been waiting for any excuse to get the decision reversed in favour of their preferred driver? And if Horner and Marko are forced to use Yuki, what sort of support will Tsunoda get?
Conflict
Are we simply witnessing political conflict inside RedBull?
I don’t think I’m stretching the point here when I say these rumours are making RedBull look extremely foolish.
If we get an announcement later this week, as De Telegraaf is predicting then I think politics is the only logical explanation of this debacle.
The Dutch Connection
And why are Dutch newspapers so far ahead of everyone on this story? Is it in Verstappen’s interest to have a more competitive driver as a partner?
For sure, someone to threaten to take points off McLaren is a definite plus for Verstappen’s championship hopes so this could be one explanation.
And if this is the case, then it would be hard to believe that Verstappen didn’t want Lawson as a team mate to start with?
Which leave us with what?
If Verstappen did not want Lawson as a team mate to start with. And if Thailand and Honda also did not want Lawson in the senior team, then who did? It only leaves Horner and Marko.
Tsunoda
As good a Tsunoda is, I don’t know how much seat time he has had in the RedBull, for sure not as much as Lawson, in which case he could be on a hiding to nothing taking the seat.
Is it in Tsunoda’s interest to take the seat at this point? With minimal seat time in front of his home fans?
I think many will argue he has a better chance of scoring points in the junior team looking at Lawson’s results so far.
I’ve said above I don’t think Tsunoda is a big step up from Lawson, at least not as big as it needs to be, to be in the same time zone as Verstappen. And considering his lack of seat time vs Lawson you could easily imagine him not doing as well as Lawson.
No Winners
It’s hard to see any winners from these rumours or from the potential driver swap.
If the swap happens RedBull look foolish for not giving Lawson a proper chance. RedBull also look foolish for putting Lawson in the car in the first place if they change their minds after two races. And if nothing happens, where did the rumours come from? They must be from someone credible inside RedBull.
Lawson is obviously not a winner if he gets replaced.
Tsunoda’s reputation could also take a hit going into a difficult car with zero preparation. He might be lucky and find his style is close to Verstappen. But it’s a might.
But a “might”, might be better than nothing as this video outlines.
Yuki’s Future
Tsunoda might be out of a job next year anyway. If he does manage to get close to Verstappen his future is bright, with or without RedBull.
And if, as the video above suggests, RedBull sabotage his chance at the senior team (because they don’t want him there), people are half expecting that anyway so he might come out unscathed.
From the viewpoint of this season, it might be better for Yuki to stay put, the car looks decent, he might get more points at the junior team.
But looking long term, if he has the opportunity to go up against the best, he has to take it (if he is guaranteed the seat for the rest of the season). The upside is potentially massive, the downside might not be that bad.
All-in-all
It’s a sub-optimal situation for all involved.
If it all turns out to be nonsense and nothing changes, that might be the best outcome.
Having said that, Yuki’s future in F1 looks uncertain despite him beating everyone that has been put in front of him. A big shake up could be just what he needs.
