Premier League Prediction REVIEW (1.11.25-3.11.25)
Premier league prediction review. How accurate were our predictions using the StrikeEngine FPL Premier League prediction tool for 1.11.25-3.11.25?
Quick Look – Premier League Prediction Review (with Sunderland Everton still to play)
Correct Result Prediction 6 out of 9 (60%)
Correct Score Prediction 1 out of 9 (10%)
Prediction vs Result Table
| Home Team | Away Team | Home xG | Away xG | Home xG Adj | Away xG Adj | Non Adj Pred | Adj Pred | H/A Raw | H/A Pred | Final Prediction | Result/Score Odds | ACTUAL RESULT | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Leeds | 1.56 | 1.33 | 2.21 | 0.68 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2.88-0.68 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | ||
| Burnley | Arsenal | 0.83 | 1.83 | -0.65 | 3.32 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 0.47-1.18 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | ||
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | 1.44 | 1.28 | 1.77 | 0.95 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2.26-0.97 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | ||
| Fulham | Wolves | 1.56 | 1.17 | 2.35 | 0.37 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 3.51-0.22 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | ||
| Nott’m Forest | Man Utd | 1.06 | 1.78 | 0.47 | 2.37 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0.81-2.23 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | ||
| Spurs | Chelsea | 1.56 | 1.33 | 0.85 | 2.04 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0.79-2.81 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | ||
| Liverpool | Aston Villa | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.7 | 0.91 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1.53-0.89 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | ||
| West Ham | Newcastle | 0.83 | 1.61 | 0.06 | 2.38 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0.66-0.95 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 | ||
| Man City | Bournemouth | 1.56 | 1.28 | 1.96 | 0.88 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2.84-1.09 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | ||
| Sunderland | Everton | 1.28 | 0.89 | 1.64 | 0.52 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2.41-0.57 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3.08/14.5 | 1-1 | Windy |
Premier League Prediction Review – In Detail
Weather was generally dry over this Premier League weekend. Dry weather may make the results more predictable/accurate.
Brighton Leeds
In the prediction video we said 2-0 tending towards a 3-0 prediction. Perhaps we should start putting 2 results where we think the prediction is on the bubble for an extra goal one way or another.
Burnley Arsenal
Burnley not scoring was hardly prophetic. A discrepancy between the tools. Splitting the different would have got the correct scoreline.
Palace Brentford
A goal from Brentford seemed likely. The strategy this week was to predict a goal if the goal prediction was .9+. Again, maybe there is a case for making two predictions, a primary and a secondary
Fulham Wolves
Nailed this result, HA tool was giving a solid 3-0 and that’s what happened.
Forest United
New manager Dyche at Forest was always going to be difficult to predict and new managers generally make past data less reliable and so it proved. Although Man U did score the predicted two goals.
Spurs Chelsea
Home/Away (H/A) biased tool was giving solid two goals for Chelsea, normally adjusted tool also 0-2. Result, 0-1 but Chelsea had so many chances and Vicario so many good saves, 0-2 was definitely the right prediction.
Liverpool Villa
Gravenberch was back for this game. Ekitike starting also, closer to the squad that started the season so well. I didn’t obey the tool here. It said 0.89, I gave the goal for Aston Villa, my error, not the tool’s. One goal from Liverpool looked nailed but a howler of a mistake from Martinez got Liverpool the two.
West Ham Newcastle
A total upset in this game. Newcastle didn’t look good at all. Did not look dangerous. Again, round up the goal is .9+ predicted proved wrong. New manager unpredictability also played a part. Nuno will get things working at some point. This game could have been that point, although West Ham were under the cosh for long periods. Again, Woltemade not passing the eye test for me at all.
Man City Bournemouth
Sunderland Everton
This one looked like a lock but a wonder goal by Ndiaye got Everton the goal. And what looked like a clear penalty for Sunderland was not given. But that’s football. Bollard looked for as well for the FPL players.
Prediction Review Summary – Changes Going Forward
Teams with new managers. Predictions should not be done, too many unknowns.
Teams with .9+ for goals predicted, the game should have a primary and secondary score prediction.
A quick recap of how the tool has done so far.
GW10 60% result accuracy, 10% score accuracy, 30% accuracy number of goals
GW9 50% results accuracy. 20% score accuracy, 20% accuracy number of goals in game.
GW8 40% results accuracy, 0% score accuracy, 30% accuracy number of goals in game.
