FPL Points Predictor (FREE) – Stats with Context
StrikeEngine FPL Points Predictor – FPL stats with context. Form, value, points scored, mins played + past & future fixtures combined for advanced points predictions. Fixture Difficulty Planner here.
Instructions (IMPORTANT) – FPL Points Predictor
All numbers are an average for the next 5 game weeks and assume player plays 90 minutes. If player is a minutes adjust points accordingly.
Terms
PPV: as PP but with value. Higher numbers are better. (Primary stat)
Bonus: Bonus points per game, the more the better. (Tie Breaker stat)
PP: The average predicted points per game over the next 5 games. Not actual points. Number compared to all other players .The higher the better. (Primary stat)
PPnGW: Predicted points for next game week only.
PPF: As PP, form compensated. (Primary stat)
T5R: Average gameweek rank(for player’s position). Lower number = higher rank = better. (Tie Breaker Stat)
NOTE: Stats are only included for players who have played more than *300* minutes. – Follow StrikeEngine on X for updates***
****FILTERING: Hold shift while selecting column heading to sort multiple columns at the same time****
Why is Context Important?
Some examples
-A player has low points per match because his mins were limited as he came back from injury. StrikeEngine FPL compensates for this by taking into account the mins he played versus the points he scored. This stat regularly discovers players who fly under the radar.
-A team got off to a really bad start because their fixtures were by far the most difficult of all other teams. The simple points per match stat does not compensate for this. StrikeEngine FPL stats do.
We scored big this year (24/25 season) picking Strand Larson and Cunha just as Wolves fixtures became easier.
These are just two examples.
Factors
What do we factor in to your FPL stats?
Bonus points
Points per game
Points per match
Minutes played
Past fixture difficulty (over two independent periods and weighted).
Future fixture difficulty
Automated
You could do this manually but it takes an age to factor in past and futures difficulty, StrikeEngine FPL Points Predictor does it all for you.
Proprietary FPL Stats
The predicted points number take into consideration many things and are combined in a proprietary way which you won’t find anywhere else. To give an example, the points take into consideration the players fixture difficulty so far and also the difficulty of future matches.
FAQ
Why is the data free? Because it’s new/experimental. The algorithm should be pretty close but it will probably be tweaked over time.
Why not use data from last year? Because it’s data from last year.
Why does a player have to have played 300 mins? Because we don’t want super subs who hardly play skewing the numbers.
An injured players is ranking highly even though he won’t play, why? It’s not always clear when a player will come back, these stats still need human savvy to get the most benefit.
Why don’t you like the stats provided by FPL? Because these stats do not take into consideration the difficulty of the games already played. They also don’t take into consideration form and they don’t take into consideration fixture difficulty.
Why doesn’t FPL predicted points predict the actual points? The formulas in the algorithm do not allow it.
How are the StrikeEngine FPL predicted points meaningful if they are not predicting actual points? Because the players are scored relative to each other. We want to know the predicted top scorers not the points scored by the top scorers.
