Many of the world’s largest companies are oil companies. Yet the effort they are putting in to dealing with the UK 2030 engine ban and EV infrastructure is next to non-existent. Just look at California, the area of the world probably more advanced than anywhere in building for an EV future with internal combustion engines banned.
Is it plausible to believe that the likes of BP and Shell will just let their businesses disappear?
Because looking at the number of charging stations in their forecourts, one would say yes. They are happy for the world to overtake them. For all the EVs to charge with other companies and for their forecourts to be patronised by tumble weeds exclusively.
Or could it be the oil companies know something we don’t?
Is it more sensible to say the oil companies don’t believe the future is EV and that is why they are not participating in this “future”.
I would say absolutely.
If the oil companies really believed the majority of cars on the roads of the UK and USA will be electric powered, they would probably be ramping up their infrastructure.
So if the EV only future is not going to happen both from the technological limitations and the lack of interest from the world’s largest companies, what is the future of transport?
There is talk of synthetic fuels but I know of no one that thinks synthetic fuels are remotely capable of fulfilling the capacity required to replace oil.
So if the oil companies do not believe the engine ban will happen and they don’t believe synthetic fuels can takeover what does that leave us with?
A future that is oil powered, like it is today.
With the difference being that a decent minority of vehicles on the road will be powered by something other than oil.
As with any company, a future where the profits will decline is unacceptable to shareholders.
So if the future will lead to a reduction in the use of oil in transport on the one hand and on the other hand we have the business goal of increasing profits over time, what must the future look like?
I only see one direction.
The money we pay oil companies for a litre of fuel must increase. And it must increase at a rate faster than the decline in the use of oil for profits to be increase over time.
For example, if the amount of oil consumed for transport declines by 10%, the price of oil must increase by at least 10%.
In a nutshell the future of transport will be made up of synthetic fuels, EVs and oil.
The difference being the price of transport of the end user will increase.
In future people will be paying a premium for cars which run on oil because of the capability of those vehicles (faster filling, longer range). And people will also be paying a premium for oil (willingly) for the same reasons.
So no, EVs are not the whole future and neither are synthetic fuels.
The future is a mix of EVs, synthetic fuels and oil, with oil still fuelling by the far the largest percentage of miles traveled.
The difference in the future will be the price we pay for oil.
The future of transport will not be engine bans. The future will look very similar today but the big difference will be the cost.
The future is one of higher oil (petrol/diesel) prices and higher purchase cost of ICE powered cars. With the knock on effect of these higher prices making EVs and synthetic fueled vehicles more competitive and a much more attractive alternative than today.
A lot of people & companies will have no choice but to pay the higher prices of oil due to their transport needs. The rest will be funneled down the EV, synthetic fuel, no car ownership/public transport road.
Whichever camp you find yourself in, one thing is sure, the price of moving around the planet will increase, possibly beyond what can be imagined today.